Climate Change Impacts In El Salvador

Taken from http://www.evogreen.co.uk/2014/03/climate-change/

If you were to look at the entire figure from IPCC report, it would seem that Central America is spared much of the impacts of climate change. However, upon closer observation you will note that the east side of central America has had a devastating impact through climate change to its marine ecosystems. It would be reasonable to conclude that its proximity to the region would make El Salvador particularly vulnerable to the same impacts. These ecosystems are all connected, and damage in one ecosystem will surely affect the others around it. Climate change certainly affects physical systems in El Salvador. Water supplies are affected by annual glacier melts, and climate change could be devastating in that aspect. These rapid glacial melts, due to climate change, can also change migration patterns in both humans and animals.

Since the Low Level Jet is driven by the size and intensity of the Western Hemisphere warm pool, it is an imperative connection to say that climate change could drastically affect weather in El Salvador. Patterns like El Nino could drive draught, and La Nina could effect flooding conditions. Notwithstanding decadal variability, dramatic precipitation increases and decreases are direct results of global climate change. The Subtropics will become dry as the global climate warms, and are related to a more powerful Carribean Low Level Jet. Conversely, Intra American Seas circulation weakens, causing the gulf of Mexico to warm less than other oceans. Carribean precipitation is likely projected to decrease in the south and increase in the north by the century's end. 

Significant trends in precipitation and temperature have been observed in Central and South America. Climate variation and extreme events have severely affected the region, usually in the forms of landslides and flash floods from frequent and extreme rainfall. Climate projections show increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation by the year 2100 AD. There are projected changes in streamflow and water availability that will affect vulnerable regions with a certainty. Deforestation and land degradation from agriculture are contributing significantly to environmental degradation and will worsen the negative impact of climate change. There is a projected 90% species extinction rate until the 2100 due to the conversion of natural ecosystems. Poverty leaves this region particularly vulnerable to the risk of climate variability and change. Sea levels and human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems are threatening sea life and disease control. Agriculture is threatened and food security will be an effect of climate change in the region. Global climate change is negatively affecting human health in the emergence of diseases and pollution. A first step in adapting to future climate change is to reduce the vulnerability of the region. 

Water management is a critical issue affecting the globe. It is of particular interest to me, because having grown up in a desert, I can particularly appreciate the critical importance of water availability and usage. Water is the single most element required for life in humans, animals, and plants. Waterborne disease issues increase where there is flooding, and agriculture is deeply affected by both flooding and drought. Human migration is largely dependent on water sources. I believe future wars will be fought over this precious resource, and that it is the primary issue of the future. There is a disparity that favors the rich in terms of water resources. In the UAE, one thing that I noticed was that water was and is still used at unsustainable levels. This water is used from building function purposes, all the way to plant care. 

Taken from http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2009/08/28/study-of-16-developing-countri/

Severe Weather In El Salvador

Tornadoes

A tornado forms during severe thunderstorms. The most dangerous of these tornadoes occur from supercells, which rotate thunderstorms with a radar circulation called a mesocyclone. Supercells are characterized by a rotating updraft and are formed in an environment that has a strong vertical wind shear. This wind shear is the change in wind speed and/or direction with height (Tornado Chaser) The formation of tornadoes are believed to occur around the mesocyclone. The VORTEX2 program suggests that when a mesocyclone has formed, tornado development is related to the temperature differences across the edge of downdraft air that wraps around the mesocyclone. (NSLL). 

In the United States, tornadoes can form from any direction. Most of them travel southwest to northeast, or west to east. Tornadoes have been known to change their direction, and even backtrack. In the US there is an average of 1,000 tornadoes recorded every year (NOAA). There are certain locations in the US that tend to have more paths from a certain direction. For example, in Minnesota they usually form from the northwest, and in the coastal areas of Texas they form from the southeast. This happens because of an increased frequency of specific tornado-producing patterns, like hurricanes in south Texas and northwest-flow weather systems in the upper Midwest (NOAA). In El Salvador there have been reported cases of tornado formation, but they are a very rare occurrence. Argentina seems to have the highest rates of tornadoes in South America, as well as the strongest. The strongest tornado in the entire southern hemisphere on record occurred in Argentina on January 10th, 1973. The tornado had winds that were estimated to be equivalent to an F5 intensity (US Tornadoes). 

Global Map of Tornado Activity/Occurrence (US Tornadoes)

Looking at the image above, El Salvador seems to be out of the way of any Tornado hot spots. 

If one were to look at graphs of Tornado occurrences from the last 30 years, it might look like the rates have risen steadily each and every year. However, there are things we must take into account. You could speculate that the reason it seems tornado occurrences have increased is because our ability to detect and monitor them has increased over time, and resources and equipment are now available that were not 30 years ago - Doppler radar for instance. 

Hurricanes

A few things are required in order for a hurricane to form. There must be a sea surface temperature of at least 80 fahrenheit, a vertical temperature in the atmosphere that cools enough with height to support storm activity, enough water vapor in the middle of the troposphere, sufficient distance from the equator for the Coriolis Force to be significant (around 300 miles), and low levels of vertical wind shear. El Salvador has warm waters and a warm surface temperature, is farther than 300 miles from the equator, and usually low levels of vertical wind shear. This might be why El Salvador has been affected in the past by hurricanes. (Hurricane Science). 

In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are referred to as typhoons, and in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean they are called cyclones. Hurricanes usually form between 5 and 30 degrees North latitude, and typically move towards the west. Looking at the image below, you can see how hurricanes tend to move from the southeast and move upwards in a northwestern direction, but sometimes the winds can be changed in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere which in turn steers the hurricane towards the north and northwest (NOAA).

Hurricane Formations (NOAA)

El Salvador is rarely hit by any Hurricanes(World Travel Guide), but there are a few occurrences where they were, including Hurricane Mitch in late october of 1998, which killed more than 11,000 people and destroying thousands of homes along the way. It was the deadliest hurricane to hit the Western Hemisphere in more than 200 years (History). From 1982 to 2013, the US received an average of 6.3 hurricanes a year, and 2.4 of those being considered major hurricanes. An average of 1.7 a year hit land, and of those 0.6 are considered major hurricanes (NOAA).